The graph below shows how far off track downtown Austin is from its historical trend. From 2009 to 2019, the market followed a relatively stable and consistent trajectory. Downtown saw a spike between 2021 and 2022, mirroring the broader Austin market. By the end of 2024, prices were 3.6% above that trend line, and 2025 YTD is currently tracking 2.54% above.
The question now is: Will we correct back to the trend line, dip below it, or remain elevated?