Downtown Market Check: How pricing, days on market, and absorption patterns are shaping outcomes
(all figures reflect medians from the past three months)
I pulled data on downtown Austin condo activity to better understand how sellers and buyers are navigating the current market. Looking at days on market (DOM), pricing, and contract-to-list ratios gives us a clear picture of what’s working and what’s not.
1. Time on Market Tells the Story
Active listings: 104 DOM at $809/SF. These units are generally sitting above where buyers are comfortable.
Failed listings: 125 DOM at $837/SF. This is the warning sign. When pricing misses the mark, DOM stretches out and many of these listings never sell at all.
Closed sales: 83 DOM at $670/SF. The strongest performers were those that sold at or above list, moving in just 41 days.
👉 The spread between failed and successful sales shows that pricing isn’t just about time, it’s about whether a unit sells at all.
2. Price Positioning and Negotiating Power
At or above list: 8 sales, $670/SF, closing at 100% of original list.
Below list: 60 sales, $668/SF, averaging 95.5% CP/LP and 91% CP/Original LP. Well-positioned listings keep their leverage. Overpriced ones lose momentum, then close at discounts or not at all.
3. Pending Sales as a Signal
Pending listings: 129 DOM at $680/SF. Pendings suggest continued demand in the $600–700/SF range, but buyers are moving carefully and avoiding units priced beyond reach.
4. What it Means for Sellers and Buyers
For sellers: Pricing in line with affordability is the best predictor of shorter timelines and stronger outcomes. The penalty for overpricing isn’t just 30-50 extra days on market, it’s the real risk of not selling.
For buyers: The best positioned condos are moving in about 40 days or less. When value is clear, waiting means losing negotiating power. It is worth putting in a low offer on overpriced/stale listings.
Important note: Each building downtown has its own median $/SF and dynamics. This post looks at downtown as a whole. If you’d like building-specific insights, reach out as I track those trends closely.
The importance of pricing is shown here in this chart, Active and Failed to Sell pricing is lower than pending and closed
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